Friday 14 October 2011

Daily Forex Brief | Risk appetite gets a reality check

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Daily Forex Brief
London: Friday 14th October 2011


Risk appetite gets a reality check

Risk appetite had something of a reality check yesterday with stocks, commodities, high–beta currencies and the euro all lower. After sneaking back through 1.38, the single currency threatened 1.37 amidst a wall of selling by sovereign wealth funds. The mood towards the euro worsened after the ECB Monthly Report observed that the outlook was coloured by intensified downside risks – in other words, growth is looking much worse than it thought a few months back when it was tightening rates. Oh, what a policy blunder it was. Overnight, the news that S&P downgraded Spain by one notch to AA – briefly weighed on the single currency, but it recovered and is back near 1.38 early in London trading. High–beta currencies such as the Aussie were offered – AUD dropped below 1.0150 after almost reaching 1.0250 earlier. European equities lost around 1%, Asian equities are down similarly and the gold price fell USD 15 from its earlier high. The process of book-closing is damping volatility as risk positions gradually diminish and as a result, the VIX index, which has been very elevated over the last three months, has fallen back sharply over recent trading sessions. To some degree, respectable US Q3 corporate earnings are helping to steady frayed investors' nerves.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

  • Mixed messages in latest UK trade figures
  • The Chinese export machine feels the pinch
  • A stark warning for Asia from the IMF
  • The narrowing emerging rate gap

Read more...


The Daily Forex Brief is brought to you by:
Michael Derks
Chief Strategist
Simon Smith
Chief Economist
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