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Most major banks are calling for EUR/USD above 1.40 in 12 months' time. Forex brokers are calling for 1.25 or lower. Why is there such a difference? And who will be right?
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Big Banks Call for Euro Gains, but We Predict Tumbles - Who's Right?
Current 12-month forecasts for EUR/USD across banks and retail FX brokers span a wide range (full list of forecasts can be found at the end of this article) and there is an interesting dichotomy in the forecasts. Large banks are mostly bullish on the EUR/USD from current levels, with their forecasts clustering in the 1.40 region. Meanwhile, retail forex brokers are quite bearish, all making calls below 1.25. FXCM is particularly bearish, calling for an exchange rate of 1.00 (Euro/US Dollar parity) in 12 months' time. A 30 percent decline in 12 months is an extreme move, but wouldn't be a shock given the wild swings that capital markets have endured in the last four years. |
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DailyFX Research Team
research@dailyfx.com |
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