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| Daily Forex Brief | |||
| The significance of yesterday's events is historic. Even before the start of the single currency, it was presented as irrevocable, with no way for a country to leave once it is a member. That has also been part of the problem. Without the ultimate sanction of expulsion, member states have been free to ride roughshod, binging on low interest rates and easy credit. Of course, Greece was not the only culprit. But yesterday, the French and German leaders recognised that the Greek referendum, even if not worded that way, was ultimately a choice of whether to remain in or leave the euro. Whilst this is a monumental shift away from doing all they can to support Greece, there is also an air of inevitability around it. Since the crisis started, the choice has always been a degree of fiscal integration or some sort of break-up. Germany has vehemently opposed the former, so we are now seeing the latter. Not surprisingly, the EUR 8bn EU/IMF loan tranche payment has been halted (was due to be paid in the next week or so), so if there is a no vote, then Greece will default by the end of December, unable to pay the EUR 8.2bn of bond redemptions or rollover the EUR 4bn of maturing t-bills. Before then, there's a confidence vote tomorrow in the Greek parliament and today's ECB meeting. | |||
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