Wednesday 19 October 2011

DailyFX: FX Options and Futures Show EURUSD to Range Trade

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Forex Options Weekly Forecast: EURUSD Likely to Offer Range Trading Opportunities

Forex futures and options sentiment recently gave contrarian signal that the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) could trade lower. Yet we see evidence that the Greenback's correction may be near complete, and our short-term biases have shifted accordingly.

 

As of the most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report, Non-commercial traders were their most bullish the US Dollar against the Euro since the EURUSD set a significant bottom near 1.20 in 2010. A subsequent rally suggests many covered their shorts, and recently-choppy price action implies the EURUSD correction higher may have run its course.

 

Uncertain price action leaves us in favor of trading ranges in the EURUSD and other currency pairs. This means buying dips towards the lows near 1.3650 and selling rallies towards 1.4000. A sharp drop in forex market volatility expectations likewise suggests we may enter wide trading ranges across major US Dollar pairs.


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Best regards,

David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist
drodriguez@dailyfx.com
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